Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.021787 0.024753 0.027986 0.031774 0.036093 0.040868 0.046551
2025-03-02 0.016734 0.020690 0.025389 0.031391 0.038867 0.047893 0.059645
2025-03-09 0.014374 0.018821 0.024419 0.032003 0.042042 0.054918 0.072758
2025-03-16 0.012381 0.016982 0.023055 0.031687 0.043694 0.059878 0.083479
2025-03-23 0.011300 0.016139 0.022796 0.032664 0.046998 0.067182 0.097977
2025-03-30 0.009844 0.014566 0.021300 0.031658 0.047290 0.070168 0.106495
2025-04-06 0.008809 0.013461 0.020319 0.031229 0.048282 0.074139 0.116737
2025-04-13 0.007756 0.012206 0.018964 0.030053 0.047952 0.075986 0.123760
2025-04-20 0.007351 0.011901 0.019015 0.031039 0.051060 0.083423 0.140419
2025-04-27 0.006950 0.011554 0.018950 0.031808 0.053853 0.090563 0.157260
2025-05-04 0.006629 0.011302 0.019006 0.032762 0.057015 0.098566 0.176345
2025-05-11 0.006122 0.010685 0.018391 0.032494 0.058018 0.102920 0.189349
2025-05-18 0.005718 0.010219 0.018006 0.032624 0.059788 0.108884 0.206112
2025-05-25 0.005263 0.009623 0.017343 0.032191 0.060494 0.112998 0.219873
2025-06-01 0.005012 0.009370 0.017267 0.032822 0.063229 0.121106 0.242171
2025-06-08 0.004654 0.008884 0.016718 0.032497 0.064082 0.125677 0.257872
2025-06-15 0.004498 0.008769 0.016850 0.033499 0.067627 0.135826 0.286035
2025-06-22 0.004112 0.008170 0.016000 0.032467 0.066959 0.137435 0.296377
2025-06-29 0.003830 0.007753 0.015469 0.032026 0.067456 0.141454 0.312285
2025-07-06 0.003492 0.007193 0.014607 0.030820 0.066218 0.141694 0.319830
2025-07-13 0.003406 0.007148 0.014787 0.031832 0.069847 0.152706 0.352913
2025-07-20 0.003302 0.007056 0.014862 0.032621 0.073055 0.163083 0.385633
2025-07-27 0.003222 0.007005 0.015018 0.033600 0.076777 0.174955 0.423188